When it won’t be the biggest battle sports event of this summer, UFC 214 is certainly the largest MMA event of the entire year. In addition to this Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card includes two extra name charms, contenders and enjoyable fights throughout.
Brad Taschuk of all MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a look at where the gambling odds have moved for all 12 fights since opening lines (indicated in brackets) were published and he provides his ideas on each matchup. All traces are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favorite the first time these two scrapped and some naively expected the lineup would be similar this time around. But, it seems that Jones’ legal issues, run-in with USADA and layoff hasn’t had the effect anticipated online. It’s hard to blame bettors Cormier is currently 38-years-old, has been through some tough battles since their first meeting, and Jones won each component of that first fight. Expect something similar – if not more dominant – this time around.
Irrespective of how seriously he takes his groundwork, Jones is the type of fighter that rises to the occasion like few others. He, this is the greatest event. Cormier is his biggest rival and he has the chance to recover the belt that he never lost against him. That combination will result in a huge performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch Cormier and re-assert his dominance at the division.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Similar to the main event, this line hasn’t seen much movement. Given the contrasting styles, that’s not tough to believe. There is a contingent of people who believe Woodley is going to starch Maia using the first punch he throws. They might well be right. The other side of this coin is made up of those who think that Maia can shut the space, latch onto Woodley like he has so many others and just dominate with his grappling. They could be right as well. Woodley’s tendency to back himself against the cage and play counter-puncher is going to be his demise here. Maia is becoming so good at entering the clinch when not under stress that he should be able to make Woodley miss after. Even against a high-level wrestler the likes of Woodley, once Maia gets his hands on you, that’s a huge trouble.
The Brazilian’s capacity to commence Jiu-Jitsu imports without hitting traditional takedowns is second to none (he’s perfected the single leg to rear take) and Woodley being the type of man who likes to explode from places will only hurt him after that happens. It’s sort of astonishing that Maia by Sub pays an excess dollar (+275 as of Thursday morning), since Woodley will not be able to endure 25 moments of Maia engaging in the sort of fight he wants to. The other choice is probably a fast Woodley KO (+350 for the champ in Round 1, incidentally ).
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This fight being bettable is dependent on which kind of bettor you are. If you don’t have any difficulty throwing a huge line in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at nearly -1400), or Cyborg ITD (nearly -700) are almost sure things. If that’s not really your style, neither will be laying nearly 2-to-1 on a prop such as Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I could make for a play relies on Evinger’s resilience. She’s taken damage in several of her fights and persevered and she likely won’t return to beat Cyborg in this one after a rough beginning, there is an outside shot she is able to endure five minutes. However, even the costs for”Fight Begins Round two” and Cyborg Round two have dropped substantially (down to +150 and +450( respectively), which makes them less appealing even to someone who’s constantly on the hunt for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It’s a shame this struggle is occurring after both men have apparently passed their peak concerning durability, since a war with Lawler and Cerrone at their best are a thing to behold. This battle will come down to distance management and in-fight choices. Lawler wants to be indoors, Cerrone wants to be outside. The problem for Cerrone is that Lawler’s constant pressure will eventually see him get indoors and at that point, expect Cerrone to be much too willing to oblige him that the war he is looking for. While that will give us the type of struggle we would like to see, don’t expect it to finish well for Cerrone.
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