This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on large ESPN card and DK has some adequate competitions for us with this particular Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k belongs to 1st place, and there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that final competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at that $20k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of drama into money games. With that said, let us get into a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the slate, in my opinion. I think he’ll be the better fighter anywhere this battle goes, and he should dominate. I like locking that triumph in my money match and I think he’s a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to become hot in tournaments so in the event that you would like to fade the ownership there and try to be more contrarian, I would definitely want some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is tough so he can continue all 3 rounds and if he does then Luque might only score in the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. But, we could use an ~80-point triumph in cash games since we just have to conquer half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP play of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week because of the chances. A bit over a week ago he was a -255 favorite and that is what led to his high $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the value is currently on Ngannou in his $7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou are the greatest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he will kill off near half the area. Furthermore, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his possession to go down the longer his betting line reduces and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He does have a 0-point flooring, so I don’t care for him in money game, however for GPPs we need boom or float to attempt and get to this 1st place prize.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of this week. He’s $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he’s just a +125 underdog. I think he has a fantastic chance of winning this battle and I am choosing him to receive his hands raised. I anticipate this to be a very close fight, but I think Fili is going to probably be the fighter striking at the higher pace and that’s what I believe do it for him to the judges‘ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili having 100+ stage upside but we do not really require that in his $7.4k price label. I think he has a great shot at getting at 10x, so he is playable in most formats for me personally.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have a hard time seeing her on the $20k lineup in her wages. I enjoy the $9k range a great deal more than her and they all have higher ceilings using their grappling-based match programs. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC debut, but that is because she did utilize grappling there. I really don’t see her doing that in this game because I think Evans-Smith gets the edge on the ground and she should be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee will win this fight, then she is going to need to do it on the toes and I really don’t see her with a high ceiling with no finish. The sole reason to utilize her is because she will be super low possessed, and it will make your lineup contrarian, but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13un (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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