To Win, You Should Ditch the Better Team

Statistically, the bettor will bet favorites. That is a big mistake, and here’s why.

First, the average bettor will overstate the comparative strength of the league’s better players and teams. What pro handicappers understand is that there is actually tremendous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player at a position and also the worst.

When a team of slightly worse gamers is much more inspired than a group of slightly superior players that an outright upset is possible. Most certainly, it is possible for the“inferior“ team to cover the point spread.

Secondly, the point spread will nullify any evident scrimmage border (power or skill benefit ) a team has over its competitor. In the 1999 and 2000 seasons, for instance, there were 167 games where the point spread was seven points or more (games where one team’s edge over another was perceived to become large ). While the underdog won just 36 of those games outright (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of the matches (while tying it six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.

Third, by betting an underdog, you have an important element of game strategy on your side. NFL teams do their best to win a game. Accordingly, in the past few minutes of a match, a team that’s leading seldom takes much risk to score more points. It concentrates on hanging on to its lead. The group that’s dropping, on the other hand, usually tries to score till the bitter end. If a bettor has obtained a popular that is ahead but not covering five minutes or less to proceed, that bettor is in trouble.

In 20 decades of handicapping the NFL, I have yet to stumble upon a long-term winning bettor who does not bet largely underdogs.

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