To Win, You Should Bet the Better Team

Statistically, the average bettor tends to bet favorites. That’s a major mistake, and here is why.

First, the average bettor will overstate the relative strength of the league’s better teams and players. What pro handicappers know is that there is actually enormous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player at a position and the worst.

When a team of slightly worse players is much more inspired than a team of slightly superior gamers an absolutely upset is possible. Most certainly, it is possible for the“poor“ team to cover the point spread.

Secondly, the point spread tends to nullify any evident scrimmage border (power or skill advantage) a group has over its opponent. From the 1999 and 2000 seasons, by way of instance, there were 167 matches in which the point spread was seven points or more (games in which one team’s edge over another was perceived to become large ). Though the underdog won only 36 of these games (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of the games (while linking it six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.

Third, by gambling an underdog, you have a significant part of sport plan in your side. NFL teams do their best to win a game. Accordingly, in the past few minutes of a game, a team that is leading infrequently takes much danger to score more points. Instead, it targets hanging on to its lead. The group that is losing, on the other hand, usually attempts to score until the bitter end. When a bettor has obtained a popular that is beforehand but not covering with five minutes or less to proceed, that bettor is in trouble.

In 20 years of handicapping the NFL, I have yet to stumble upon a long-term winning bettor who doesn’t bet largely underdogs.

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