To Win, You Need To Bet the Better Team

Statistically, the average bettor will bet favorites. That’s a major mistake, and here’s why.

First, the average bettor tends to overstate the comparative potency of the league’s better players and teams. What pro handicappers know is that there’s actually enormous parity in the league, with not that much difference between the best player at a position and the worst.

When a team of slightly worse players is more motivated than a team of slightly better gamers that an absolutely upset is possible. Most certainly, it’s possible for the“poor“ team to cover the point spread.

Secondly, the point spread will nullify any obvious scrimmage edge (skill or power advantage) a group has over its competitor. From the 1999 and 2000 seasons, for instance, there were 167 matches where the point spread was seven points or more (games where one group’s advantage over another was perceived to become large ). While the underdog won only 36 of these games (21.6 percent), the underdog covered the point spread in 83 of the matches (while tying it in six): a success rate of 51.6 percent.

Third, by betting an underdog, you’ve got a significant element of sport plan in your side. NFL teams do their very best to win a match. Accordingly, in the past few minutes of a game, a team that’s leading infrequently takes much danger to score more points. Instead, it targets hanging on to its lead. The team that’s dropping, on the other hand, usually tries to score until the bitter end. If a bettor has obtained a popular that is beforehand but not covering with five minutes or less to proceed, that bettor is in trouble.

In 20 years of handicapping the NFL, I have yet to come across a long-term winning bettor who does not bet largely underdogs.

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