This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of money from this week contemplating it is a smaller card and begins at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at the $25k prize, and then I will likely take a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t believe there are any money locks nowadays, so I wanted to bring a cash plan I use a great deal of the moment, which can be punting in cash and accepting a loss. I don’t believe Roxy gets the win here, but she is only $6.9k and I believe she receives 15-minutes of actions. I like the flooring which accompanies this and punting along with her cheap cost enables us to fit in more of the favorites that are higher with our other 5 spots. We do not want 6 wins in money games, so I don’t think we will need to try for it. I enjoy playing cash games safer and if I can lock 25-35 points in a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I am totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in cash and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal weekly. Let everybody else make the mistakes and only shoot for a score that may beat 50 percent or more of this area.
GPP play of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my view and I like Overeem as one of my best plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be shocked to see this move all 5 rounds. In addition, I believe Overeem will be too fast for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels ahead of him in the game that is spectacular. The sole shot Oleinik has of winning on the toes would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Other than those two outcomes, Overeem will smoke on the toes. I also think Overeem will work his way back into his toes if he is taken down and the longer Oleinik shoots takedowns the quicker he will gas out. I like the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I believe he gets a complete in around 1 or 2. That should give us near 100 DK points if not more, and I want that in lots of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog play of this week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change once they’re released. We receive Fiziev here for 800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he is preferred to get the win. I was very impressed by what I saw out of this child and I concur with all the line motion. I really do think he has the win , but it’s the DK value that we want to make certain to get exposure to the weekend. I believe he’s a great play cash games with the current price and I hope to be obese on him in GPPs as well. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and when we can use a popular as one of those”underdogs” then I am usually on board for it.
Fade of the week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price tag. I really do think she has the win here as I mentioned earlier, I simply don’t see the way she’ll pay off that wages without a finish. I don’t see her shooting any takedowns in this match, and I do not wish to rely on her getting knockdown points either. Thus, we are only likely to be getting 0.5 points each significant strike, and the 30-point win bonus if she wins a decision. If this is the case, we’d want her to property over 126 sig strikes just to get more than 10x worth. I really don’t see that being the case and I believe she likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision triumph. At her salary, that will not win anybody the large $25k. That’s the prize I’m shooting so that’s why she is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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