This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of money from this week contemplating it is a more compact card and begins at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $25k prize, then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t believe there are any money locks nowadays, so I wanted to bring a money plan I use a lot of the time, which is punting in money and accepting a loss. I don’t think Roxy gets the win , but she is just $6.9k and I believe she receives 15-minutes of action. I like the floor which accompanies this and punting with her cheap price allows us to fit in more of the favorites that are higher with our other 5 spots. We do not want 6 wins in cash games, so I do not believe we need to even try for it. I enjoy playing money games if I can lock in 25-35 points in a loss from Roxy in her cheap price I’m totally okay with that. I always look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal weekly. Let everybody else make the errors and just shoot for a score which can beat 50% or more of this area.
GPP drama of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This is an all-in struggle for GPPs in my view and I enjoy Overeem among my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be shocked to see this move all 5 rounds. In addition, I think Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels before him in the game that is spectacular. The only shot Oleinik has of winning on the toes would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing entry. Besides those two outcomes, Overeem will smoke him on the feet. I also believe Overeem can work his way back into his feet if he is taken down and the more Oleinik shoots for takedowns the faster he will gas out. I enjoy the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I think he gets a finish in around 1 or 2. That should provide us close to 100 DK points or even more, and I need that in a lot of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of this week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change once they are released. We get Fiziev here for 800 less costly than Mustafaev and he’s preferred to get the win. I was very impressed by what I saw out of this kid and I concur with the line movement. I really do think he gets the win , but it is the DK worth that we would like to be sure to find exposure to the weekend. I think he is a great play cash games with the current price and that I hope to be obese on him GPPs too. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a popular as among these”underdogs” then I am usually on board for that.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price label. I do think she gets the win here as I said earlier, I simply don’t see the way she can pay off that wages with no finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I do not want to rely on her getting knockdown points . Thus, we’re only likely to be getting 0.5 points each significant strike, and then the 30-point win bonus if she wins a decision. If this is the case, we’d want her to land over 126 sig strikes simply to secure more than 10x worth. I don’t see that being the case and that I think she more likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision triumph. At her salary, that won’t win anyone the large $25k. That’s the prize I am shooting for so that is why she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 69-41 for +237.39un (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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