This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week contemplating it is a more compact card and starts at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will likely take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t believe there are any cash locks this week, so I needed to bring a cash plan I use a lot of the moment, which is punting in money and accepting a reduction. I don’t think Roxy gets the win , but she is only $6.9k and that I believe she gets 15-minutes of action. I like the flooring which accompanies that and punting with her cheap cost allows us to fit in a lot of the favorites that are higher with our other five spots. We don’t need 6 wins in money games, so I don’t think we will need to try for this. I enjoy playing money games if I can lock in 25-35 points in a reduction from Roxy in her cheap price I am totally ok with that. I always look for 4 wins in cash and above 350-400 DK points. That is my goal weekly. Let everybody else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score which may conquer 50 percent or more of this area.
GPP drama of the week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This is an all-in fight for GPPs in my view and I like Overeem as one of my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be amazed to see this move all 5 rounds. In addition, I believe Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels ahead of him in the striking game. The sole shot Oleinik has of winning on the toes would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Other than those two results, Overeem will smoke on the toes. I also believe Overeem can work his way back into his feet if he’s removed and the more Oleinik shoots for takedowns the quicker he will gas out. I enjoy the -175 ITD line which is included with Overeem here and I believe he gets a finish in around 2 or 1. That should provide us near 100 DK points if not more, and I need that in lots of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog play of this week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries don’t change once they’re released. We receive Fiziev here for 800 less costly than Mustafaev and he is favored to get the win. I was very impressed by what I saw from this child and I agree with the line motion. I do think he gets the win , but it is the DK worth that we want to be sure to find exposure to this weekend. I think he’s a great play cash games with the current price and I expect to be obese on him GPPs as well. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a popular as among those”underdogs” then I am usually on board for that.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week because of her $9.3k price tag. I really do think she gets the win here since I said previously, I just don’t see how she’ll pay off that salary without a finish. I really don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I don’t want to rely on her getting knockdown points . Thus, we are only likely to be getting 0.5 points per significant strike, and the 30-point win bonus when she wins a decision. If this is the case, we’d want her to property over 126 sig strikes just to get more than 10x worth. I really don’t see that being the case and I think she more likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision win. At her salary, that won’t win anybody the large $25k. That is the prize I am shooting for so that is why she’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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