This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week contemplating it is a more compact card and starts at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a great amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t think there are really no money locks this week, so I needed to bring a money plan I use a lot of the time, which is punting in cash and accepting a loss. I don’t believe Roxy gets the win here, but she is just $6.9k and I think she receives 15-minutes of actions. I like the flooring that comes with that and punting with her cheap price allows us to fit in a lot of those favorites that are higher with our other 5 spots. We do not need 6 wins in money games, so that I don’t believe we will need to even try for this. I enjoy playing cash games if I can lock in 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy at her cheap price I’m totally okay with that. I always look for 4 wins in cash and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everybody else make the mistakes and just shoot for a score which may beat 50 percent or more of the field.
GPP play of the week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my view and I enjoy Overeem among my best plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be amazed to see this go all 5 rounds. In addition, I believe Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels before him in the game that is spectacular. The only shot Oleinik has of winning on the toes would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Besides those two results, Overeem will smoke him on the toes. I also think Overeem will work his way back to his feet if he’s taken down and the longer Oleinik shoots for takedowns the faster he will gas out. I enjoy the -175 ITD line that comes with Overeem here and I think he gets a complete in around 1 or 2. That should give us near 100 DK points if not more, and I want that in lots of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog play of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change once they are released. We get Fiziev here for $800 less costly than Mustafaev and he is preferred to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw out of this kid and that I agree with the line motion. I do think he has the win , but it is the DK worth that we want to make certain to find exposure to the weekend. I believe he is a great play cash games with the present value and that I hope to be overweight on him GPPs too. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a favorite as one of those”underdogs” I am usually on board for it.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of this week because of her $9.3k price tag. I really do think she gets the win here since I said previously, I just don’t see how she can pay off that salary without a finish. I really don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I don’t wish to rely on her obtaining knockdown points either. So, we are only going to be getting 0.5 points each significant strike, and then the 30-point win bonus when she wins a decision. If this is the case, we would need her to property over 126 sig strikes simply to get more than 10x worth. I really don’t see that being the case and I think she likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision triumph. At her salary, that won’t win anyone the large $25k. That’s the prize I’m shooting for so that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 69-41 to get +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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