Finding a border in hockey betting can sometimes be tough and the majority of the time that it ends in a blown tire and a comprehensive yard sale. There are, though, a few tendencies that appear to keep true year in and year out and I’ve identified one in regard to NHL scoring I think could be advantageous to TV ratings and, even furthermore, to a sportsbook account.
The tendency I’m speaking of is that scoring goes up — way up — when teams get rest. Yesterday evening, the initial slate following the all-star match, was a microcosm of that as we saw a total of 99 goals scored in 14 games. That’s over seven goals per game, and an OVER/UNDER record of 11-2-1. That wild night closed out per month that saw a major increase in scoring which increased the NHL goals per match league average to 5.46 and saw teams post a 185-162-31 OVER/UNDER album — a six per cent increase in OVERs from the prior months.
A possible reason for this boost in scoring is the newly instituted bye weeks. The NHL realized that scoring began to dip in January due to the intense schedule that its players were subjected to and wanted to do something to curb the trend. It is a well-established fact that when scoring goes down, so do evaluations, and also this bye week is an easy way to acquire players rested up a bit to give that scoring the tiny boost it requires from the dog days of the NHL season without making a basic change to the rule book. These bye weeks will finish at the close of the month and I think you will almost immediately see scoring return to normal.
A few teams to target on the OVER right are the Wild, Capitals, Blackhawks, Penguins, Stars, Jets and Blues. Throughout the month of January, those teams combined for a 62-22-8 OVER/UNDER record and should only continue to do harm on the scoresheet within another month or so. One thing you may notice is that every one these teams come in the Central and Metropolitan divisions. These are both highest-scoring branches in hockey and it is not close.
One thing to look out for is a shift in NHL totals. Books are slow to adjust NHL lines and when they dothey probably already missed the tendency or are attempting to persuade you to bet 1 way or the other. Whenever your publication starts throwing out totals of 6 and 6.5, err on the side of caution and potentially avoid those games completely. That said, you should hammer the OVER if you see any of the teams I mentioned previously receive a total of 5 5.5 before the current scoring tendency stops.
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